TURKEY: Customs Union with the EU & more – 10th Feb 2026

Merhaba from Oakley! This is the Rorshok Turkey Update from the 10th of February twenty twenty-six. A quick summary of what's going down in Turkey.

On Friday the 6th, Turkey and the European Union agreed to work toward updating their EU-Turkey Customs Union, a trade deal first signed in nineteen ninety-five. This week, the Turkish Foreign Minister and EU Enlargement Commissioner met in Ankara and reaffirmed a shared commitment to modernizing the arrangement to boost competitiveness, economic security and resilience. Both officials also welcomed the gradual resumption of European Investment Bank projects in Turkey and neighbouring regions.

The customs union allows tariff-free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and EU member states but does not cover agriculture, services or digital trade, leaving Turkish exporters at a disadvantage in some areas.

The step does not mean an updated deal is finalized, but it reflects renewed engagement after years of stalled discussions.

On Monday the 9th, the United Nations released an economic outlook suggesting Turkey’s growth will be moderate but remain positive this year, with inflation expected to stay in double digits. The World Economic Situation and Prospects twenty twenty-six report projects that by the end of twenty twenty-six, Turkey’s economy will expand about 4% after robust growth in twenty twenty-five, while inflation may slow to around 22%.

The report said that private consumption and investment sustained demand even as external conditions weakened and monetary policy tightened. It also highlighted risks such as geopolitical tensions and structural inflationary pressures that could temper forward momentum.

The UN’s outlook places Turkey among developing economies, making notable progress in reducing inflation from recent highs, yet still facing challenges in jobs and external financing.

More about the economy, as on Friday the 6th, official data showed Turkey’s food prices remain higher than those in many advanced economies, fuelling cost-of-living concerns. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute and Eurostat comparisons, food inflation in January climbed about 32% annually, while the eurozone's rise was 3%. Food inflation also pushed the overall inflation rate to around 31%, far above Europe’s average.

Some economists say changes in how Turkey calculates inflation affect official figures. Independent estimates suggest real price pressures may be even higher. High food inflation can erode consumers’ living standards and increase pressure on wages, especially ahead of Ramadan, when food demand typically rises.

On Monday the 9th, new data showed Turkey’s manufacturing sector shrinking for the twenty-second month in a row. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry released its Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, which measures business activity through surveys of factory managers. A score below fifty means the sector is shrinking rather than growing. January’s figure stood at slightly above forty-eight. That signals lower production, fewer new orders and weaker overall demand.

Manufacturers reported that both domestic and export orders remain slow, while the cost of raw materials and energy stays high. Even though Turkey produces cars, textiles, machinery and household goods for Europe and the Middle East, many companies now operate below capacity. Some economists say this long stretch of contraction points to deeper structural problems and adds pressure to the wider economy, since industry provides millions of jobs and a large share of exports.

On Monday the 9th, a Turkish court rejected the appeal of BBC correspondent Mark Lowen against his deportation and six-year entry ban, meaning he cannot return to Turkey until twenty thirty. The police detained him for about seventeen hours back in March twenty twenty-five, while covering protests that followed the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the imprisoned mayor of Istanbul. Authorities later deported Lowen, calling him a threat to national security and public order.

Authorities said the decision had nothing to do with journalism and instead cited accreditation violations, stating Lowen carried out reporting activities in Istanbul without completing the required foreign press procedures under the Press Card Regulation. The case has drawn criticism from international media groups, while government supporters argue that all foreign journalists must follow national rules.

Speaking of İmamoğlu, in a Turkish essay published on BirGün, Timur Soykan reported that on Saturday the 7th, the police detained Bektaş Kamburoğlu, İmamoğlu’s long-time bodyguard, as part of the investigation into the Istanbul Municipality. Officers took him from his home and kept him in custody for two days. A court released him under judicial control, banned him from leaving the country and ordered him to sign in regularly.

Reportedly, police focused heavily on Bektaş Kamburoğlu’s closeness to Ekrem İmamoğlu. They questioned his frequent phone calls, shared location signals, and contact with İmamoğlu’s family and aides, even though he had worked as his close protection officer for around twelve years. Kamburoğlu said this contact came from routine security duties, while critics argue authorities treated normal professional proximity as suspicious.

On Sunday the 8th, a team of Turkish scientists reached the Turkish Scientific Research Camp on Horseshoe Island in Antarctica to begin the 10th National Antarctic Science Expedition, marking a decade of Turkey’s continuous scientific presence on the continent. The expedition aims to study climate change and the environment through ice, lake and marine water sampling, biodiversity surveys, and geology research. Seventeen researchers — sixteen from Turkey and one from Bulgaria — will conduct research spanning life sciences, earth sciences and environmental studies. After reaching the camp, the team raised the Turkish flag and began work that will continue over the coming weeks in harsh polar conditions.

Meanwhile, Turkey celebrated a record in tourism spending, with foreign visitors’ purchases of souvenirs and gifts reaching as high as 2.3 billion dollars last year. Tourists from around the world visiting historic cities, Mediterranean beaches and cultural sites contributed strongly to this figure, which approaches 10 billion dollars in total tourism-related revenue over recent years.

Souvenir spending not only supports local artisans and small businesses but also reflects broader resilience in tourism after global travel disruptions during the pandemic years. Tourism remains a key pillar of Turkey’s economy, creating jobs and attracting foreign currency.

Officials say sustained spending growth can help offset weaknesses in other sectors and bolster service exports, even as global competition for visitors intensifies.

In other news, the Health Ministry is moving forward with a major expansion of smoking restrictions as part of its long-term goal of a tobacco-free Turkey by twenty fifty.

Officials are preparing a draft law that would widen the current ban on smoking — which already covers indoor public spaces — to include many places previously exempt. Under the planned changes, semi-open areas such as restaurant terraces, winter gardens and retractable-roof sections will be treated as fully indoor and thus smoke-free, and smoking will be banned within five metres, or sixteen feet of building entrances. Children’s parks and beaches will also be designated smoke-free. There are plans to send informational messages to registered smokers to support cessation efforts.

These developments follow earlier measures and signal a shift toward stricter tobacco control nationwide.

On Monday the 9th, the Turkish Aeronautical Association or THK announced new plans to use motorised paragliders and drones in disaster response and search-and-rescue missions. The organization is preparing project talks with disaster management agencies to formally integrate these aerial tools into emergency frameworks.

Paramotors and drones are already used in training flights and offer different strengths: paramotors can stay in the air longer, fly at slower speeds, and allow direct human observation, while drones provide rapid, remote imaging.

The THK chairman cited a recent case during a training flight in the southern city of Alanya, where a paramotor pilot spotted a motionless person at sea, enabling a quick response. He said the tools can be especially useful in earthquakes, fires and other disasters where helicopters may be less effective.

Finally, on Tuesday the 10th, the Turkish Statistical Institute announced that Turkey’s population reached about eighty-six million at the end of twenty twenty-five, adding roughly four hundred and thirty thousand people compared to last year.

The data show that families are having fewer children. The fertility rate fell below 1.5 in twenty twenty-four, far below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. This means the population is getting older over time.

Istanbul remained the largest city with almost sixteen million people: 18% of the total population. The number of foreign residents reached over one and a half million.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

A few of you have asked for an easy way to connect and get updates on Rorshok and what we may do in Turkey, because we might do some stuff, and who knows, it's not impossible that we even get the Turkey update going again. We will set up a way for you to let us know you are interested, and share it with you this coming week.

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